Nebojša Novković
Ljiljana Drinić
Dragan Ivanišević
Šumadinka Mihajlović


University of Banja Luka, Faculty of Agriculture, BiH
Privredna akademija Novi Sad, FIMEK, Serbia
University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia

2nd International Scientific Conference on Recent Advances in Information Technology, Tourism, Economics, Management and Agriculture – ITEMA 2018 – Graz, Austria, November 8, 2018, CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS published by the Association of Economists and Managers of the Balkans, Belgrade, Serbia; ISBN 978-86-80194-13-4

Abstract

The analysis and forecasting of price parities for vegetables were made in relation to the prices of cereals – wheat in Serbia. The objective of the analysis and forecasting of these parities is to forecast the relative economical (price) positions of certain vegetable crops by comparing them to agricultural (field crop) products represented by wheat as the most important field crop in Serbia.

The analysis and forecasting of the price parities was made in relation to wheat for the following vegetable crops: potato, bean, tomato, pepper, onion and cabbage.

The price parities were analyzed by means of descriptive statistics for the period 1994–2017. The analysis included the basic statistical indicators: average value of occurrence, extreme value (minimum and maximum), coefficient of variation and average annual rate of change (r). Based on the established parity change rates (r) in %, the forecast was made for the period 2018-2022.

The data used in the analysis refer to the prices in Serbia. The price series in this paper are either taken from or formed on the basis of statistical publications of the Institution of Statistics of the Republic of Serbia for the relevant years. In addition to the official publications, data from the websites of the statistical institutes of the Republic of Serbia were also used as a data source.

Relative prices, i.e. parities of vegetables in comparison with wheat, as an indicator of the relative economic position of vegetables in comparison with other competitive crops, showed similar trends as the absolute, discounted prices. Slight increase of parity was noted for pepper, while the parity for bean and tomato showed significant increase. Slight decrease of parity was recorded for potato and onion. The parity for cabbage showed significant decline.

 

Key words

vegetables, price parity, Serbia, forecasting


References

[1] Ivanišević, D. (2015): Forecast of Production – Economic Parameters for Vegetable Farming in Serbia, doctoral thesis, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture.

[2]   Miljanovic Gora, Mutavdžić Beba, Novković, N., Janosevic, M. (2014): Prediction of  Tomato Production  Characteristics in Serbia, Book of proceedings [Elektronski izvor] / Fifth International Scientific Agricultural Symposium “Agrosym 2014”, Jahorina, October 23–26; University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Agriculture, BIH; University of  Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia, Jahorina, str. 1056-1061; ISBN 978-99955-751-9-9.

[3]   Mutavdžić Beba, Novković N., Ivanišević D. (2011): Tendencije razvoja povrtarstva u Srbiji, Agroznanje, Univerzitet u Banja Luci, Poljoprivredni fakultet, Vol.12, br. 1, str. 23-31, ISBN: 1512-6412.

[4]   Mutavdžic Beba, Drinic Ljiljana, Novković, N., Ostojić, A., Rokvic Gordana (2014):  Predvidjanje razvoja povrtarstva u Republici Srpskoj, “DETUROPE«, Central European  Journal of Regional Development and Tourism, Volume 6, Issue 1, str.50-64, ISSN 1821-2506

[5]   Novković, N., Mutavdžić Beba, Vukelić Nataša (2011): Vegetable production tendencies  in Vojvodina, Proceedings of 22nd International Symposium Food Safety Production,  Poljoprivredni fakultet, Novi Sad, Trebinje 19-25.juna, str.163-165 ISBN: 978-86-7520-219-6.

[6]   Novković, N., Mutavdžic B., Drinic, Lj., Ostojic, A., Rokvic, G. (2012): Tendency Of Vegetables Development In Republic of Srpska, Third International Scientific Symposium “Agrosym Jahorina 2012” – Book of Proceedings, University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Agricultue, BIH; University of Belgrade, Faculty of Agriculture, Serbia, Jahorina, str. 656-  661; ISBN 978-99955-751-0-6

[7]   Novković, N.,  Mutavdžić Beba, Ilin Ž., Ivanišević D. (2013): Forecasting of Potato Production, Book of Abstracts, II International and XVIII scientific conference of agronomists of Republic of Srpska, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Banjaluka; Biotechnical faculty, University of Ljubljana, Trebinje 26-29.3, str. 90-91 ISBN 978-99938- 93-26-4

[8]   Novković, N., Beba Mutavdžić, Ilin, Ž., Lazić, D. (2015): Vegetables Production Tendencies in the EU Countries – Introductory lecture, Book of Abstracts, IV International Symposium and XX Scientific Conference of Agronomists of Republic of Srpska, page 161-162; ISBN 978-99938-93-30-1

[9]   Ivanišević, A., Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., Vukelić, N. (2015): Analysis and prediction of tomato price in Serbia, Ekonomika poljoprivrede, Institut za ekonomiku poljoprivrede, Beograd, Vol. LXII, No. 4 (899-1178), str.951-961, ISSN 0352-3462

[10] Mutavdžić, B., Novković, N., Vukelić, N., Radojević, V.(2016): Analysis and prediction of prices  and price parities of corn and wheat in Serbia, Journal on processing and energy in agriculture Vol.20, No. 2,  str. 106-108, Novi Sad  ISSN 1821-4487

[11] Novković, N., Mutavdžić, B., Ivanišević, D., Matković, M. (2016): Analysis and prediction of  cabbage price in Serbia, Book of Abstracts, 5th International Symposium on agricultural sciences, p. 90, February 29 – March 3, Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, ISBN 978- 99938-93-37-0

[12] Novković, N., Mutavdžić Beba (2016a): Analysis and forecasting of bean prices in Serbia, Proceedings of papers: Policy and Economics for Sustainable Agricultural and Rural Development, AAEM 10th International Conference, 12-14 May, Ohrid, Association of Agricultural Economists of the Republic of Macedonia p.195-203, ISBN 978-9989-2358-7-0

 

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